A no-deal Brexit will mean an economic hit of £1,640,000,000 to Harrow over the next five years — and Harrow stands to fare worse than most other regions.
David Davis and other members of the cabinet have recently been talking up a no-deal Brexit, but this data shows that Harrow and the country simply couldn't afford it.
If the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a deal, Britain's economic output (gross value added) in the five years after Brexit would be reduced by 5.3%, or £430 billion.
Even if the UK agreed to a Norway style arrangement with full single market access, this would still result in a reduction to five-year economic output of 2.9%, or £235 billion.
Liberal Democrat Spokesperson ███████████ said:
"These figures are a real indictment of the government's strategy. David Davis is still talking up the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, yet these figures suggest that this would cost Harrow a ruinous £1.6 billion over five years. Even a relatively soft Brexit could cost the area £820 million.
"£1.6 billion works out at over £1300 per year from each Harrow resident — paid in lower wages, lost jobs, higher prices, and worse public services.
"The government must rule out a no-deal. It must end the uncertainty and confirm its commitment to stay in the single market and customs union.
"The study suggests that for Harrow, no-deal would be devastating."